The Wealth Is There. But Is This the Time to Buy a Yacht? The Future of Yachting Through the Lens of Kenneth Rogoff
In the third instalment of “Oltre l’orizzonte”, Filippo Ceragioli continues his look at the future of yachting through some of the leading contemporary economic theories. After examining the concentration of global wealth with Branko Milanović, the series turns to the work of Kenneth Rogoff, professor of international economics at Harvard and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. The focus moves from who holds the wealth to when they are willing to spend it, and to how interest rates, exchange rates and financial cycles affect an owner’s decision to order a yacht or to postpone it.
The two previous instalments can be read at the following links:
Beyond the Horizon: Economics as a Key to Understanding Yachting
Having enough money to buy a superyacht does not necessarily mean deciding to do so.
A prospective owner may have essentially the same wealth today as a year ago, yet be far less inclined to order a new yacht. Financial markets, interest rates, exchange-rate movements and perceptions of risk can profoundly change the moment at which substantial wealth is turned into a purchase.
This is the second stage of our analysis of yachting's future through some of the leading theories of contemporary economics.
With Branko Milanović, we asked where global wealth is becoming concentrated and who owns it. Through the lens of Kenneth Rogoff, professor of international economics at Harvard and former Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, the question changes:
when is that wealth ready to be spent?
We are not attributing any forecasts about the yachting market to Rogoff. Instead, we use some central themes of his work—financial cycles, interest rates, debt, currencies and crises—to interpret yachting data.
Wealth Alone Is Not Enough
Rogoff has long studied how financial conditions, debt and crises affect the economy. In the celebrated This Time Is Different, co-written with Carmen Reinhart, he examined eight centuries of financial crises. More recently, in Our Dollar, Your Problem, he addressed the role of the dollar and the evolution of the international financial system.
Applied to yachting, the point can be put very simply.
Being wealthy and feeling able to spend are two different things.
An entrepreneur may retain considerable wealth while simultaneously facing a decline in the value of their company, unstable equity markets, more attractive financial returns or greater geopolitical uncertainty.
A yacht also has a particular characteristic: its purchase can be postponed. A prospective buyer may simply decide to wait six months, a year or two.
And that is precisely what appears to have happened recently.
Waiting, Then Returning to Buy
According to SuperYacht Times' The State of Yachting 2026, many prospective buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach in 2023 and 2024 in the face of economic uncertainty, rising costs and long delivery times.
In 2023, 205 new superyachts over 30 metres were sold. In 2024, that number fell to 200. In 2025, it rose again to 215.
SuperYacht Times notes that some previously postponed projects appear to have returned to the market as production capacity and delivery schedules became clearer. the-state-of-yachting-2026
The distinction matters: demand that has disappeared and demand that has been deferred are not the same thing.
For yachting, this means the number of potential customers may remain essentially unchanged even as their willingness to buy shifts very quickly.
Why Interest Rates Matter Even to Buyers Who Do Not Need Financing
It might seem that interest rates matter relatively little to someone who can buy a yacht outright.
It is not that simple.
Interest rates influence company valuations, stock markets, real estate and returns on alternative investments. Spending €30 million or €50 million on a yacht means something different when that capital could generate high returns elsewhere.
The cost of a yacht, therefore, is not just its price.
It also includes what the owner gives up by committing that capital.
This is why financial conditions can affect even buyers who have no need to borrow.
But Not Every Segment Responds in the Same Way
Here we encounter a phenomenon already identified in our analysis through Milanović's lens.
SuperYacht Times finds greater sensitivity to economic uncertainty among buyers in the 30–40-metre segment. In 2025, 98 new yachts were sold in this category.
At the other extreme, sales of yachts over 80 metres rose from 13 in 2024 to 19 in 2025, the highest figure ever recorded. the-state-of-yachting-2026
At the beginning of 2026, despite a renewed increase in international uncertainty, orders for large new-build yachts continued to be recorded. The report itself asks whether yachting has once again become a two-speed market. the-state-of-yachting-2026
Sensitivity to financial conditions may therefore decline as we move towards the highest levels of wealth.
The Dollar Matters Too
There is another important variable: the exchange rate.
A significant share of superyachts is built in Europe, with costs largely denominated in euros, while the United States is the world's largest market by ownership: Americans own 27.6% of yachts over 30 metres for which SuperYacht Times knows the owner's nationality. the-state-of-yachting-2026
For an American buyer purchasing in Europe, a substantial change in the euro–dollar exchange rate can therefore alter the effective cost of a large yacht by millions.
The exchange rate can become a factor in deciding whether to buy, bring forward or postpone a project.
This is particularly interesting in light of Rogoff's most recent work, which focuses precisely on the dollar's international role and the possible evolution of the current monetary system.
The Pre-Owned Market Sends the Same Signal
The brokerage market tells a similar story.
In 2025, pre-owned yacht sales increased by 6%, reaching 353 transactions. At the same time, aggregate asking-price reductions exceeded €1 billion.
SuperYacht Times therefore describes a more buyer-friendly market: demand exists, but it has become more selective, and sellers must adjust their expectations. the-state-of-yachting-2026
Once again, rising sales and financial caution can coexist.
Which Indicators Should We Be Watching?
Rogoff's perspective suggests that tracking GDP and the number of millionaires may not be enough to forecast the yachting market.
It could be equally useful to monitor equity markets, interest rates, the euro–dollar exchange rate and financial volatility, and examine whether these indicators anticipate sales across different segments.
A sharp correction in financial markets could affect prospective owners more quickly than a slowdown in GDP, because superyacht buyers typically hold a substantial share of their wealth in businesses and other assets.
In the short term, then, we should ask not only how much the global economy will grow, but under what financial conditions that growth will take place.
Over the medium term, the question becomes even more important. Public debt, geopolitics, inflation, interest rates and potential changes in the dollar's international role could make the coming years more financially volatile.
And volatility favours one of the simplest decisions available to someone considering a yacht purchase: waiting.
With Milanović, we saw that knowing how much wealth will be created is not enough: we must understand who will own it.
Rogoff adds a second step:
even knowing who owns the wealth is not enough. We must understand when they will be willing to spend it.
For yachting, this may be one of the most important questions of the coming years.
Filippo Ceragioli
Sources and References
Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly; Kenneth Rogoff, Our Dollar, Your Problem (2025), for discussions of financial cycles, crises, debt and the dollar's international role.
SuperYacht Times, The State of Yachting 2026, for data on new-build and brokerage sales, size segmentation and ownership. the-state-of-yachting-2026
The next instalment will be published online on Thursday 29 October.