The top solo racers on the Vendée Globe should reach an important transition tomorrow, Sunday, when they catch a low pressure system which will carry them at speed directly towards the tip of South Africa and the Southern Ocean beyond. The liaison with the low has been forecast for several days now. The secondary depression that is forming between Brazil and the small archipelago of Trindade and Martin Vaz.

But it still remains unclear as to how many skippers will be there to connect and catch a ride. For sure at this point of the race it seems very likely that the record sized 39 boat fleet will be split in two but where that cut off happens will only become clear tomorrow.

"The challenge at the moment is to be as fast as possible to then make the most of the depression that is coming from Brazil, and especially for as long as possible. Those who get there later will have more difficulty exploiting it to the full. That is why we must not hang around!"  summed up Nico Lunven (Holcim – PBR). Lunven, like leader Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance, and all those around him has been at full gas, making speeds of over 20 knots in ideal conditions. The trade winds are around 15kts and lifting them increasingly as they get down the Brazilian coast, allowing them to sail more and more directly towards South Africa. 

“If this is the case, it will obviously not be ideal. It risks making big gaps but you never know what can happen, in the meantime, we continue to be on the ball,"
BenjaminDutreux

GUYOT ENVIRONNEMENT - WATER FAMILY

Connection not easy 

“It is not as easy as it looks on the video animations, initially. but in reality, the boats will have to be well positioned in an initially unstable wind regime if they want to be with this low for as long as possible.” Warned Christian Dumard, meteo consultant to the Vendée Globe, “The second group has emerged from the doldrums and is now sailing in a fairly light trade winds. They will not benefit from the low. For them, the rounding of the Saint Helena high could be more classic with a long gybe to the south before being able to turn left towards the Cape of Good Hope.” 

He explains, "The conditions are quite exceptional. Often depressions come out of Itajaí Bay. The one we are talking about will be with the leading group very early on the course", explained Dumard who explains that during the 2016 edition - the one that broke speed records - Alex Thomson and Armel Le Cléac'h turned left 500 miles further south than the leaders will do this time. He concludes

"Because of this exceptional situation we could have some great times at the Cape of Good Hope"

Believing until the end

"The door has opened to slice across the Saint Helena high pressure but it is not certain that this depression will take us all the way to the Roaring Forties. The models are still undecided at four days ahead of now ", explains Paul Meilhat (Biotherm). 

"It could indeed end with a slightly complicated situation", agrees Lunven who is nevertheless is looking forwards to racking up the miles at high speed and in the right direction over the next few days. 

Boris Herrmann in 13th on Malizia Seaexplorer is less convinced, "The routings say that it's a bit tight for us. We risk maybe only catching the tail of this depression and therefore ending up blocked by the Saint Helena anticyclone.” 

“If this is the case, it will obviously not be ideal. It risks making big gaps but you never know what can happen, in the meantime, we continue to be on the ball," comments Benjamin Dutreux (GUYOT environnement – ​​Water Family) who is gradually slanting towards the East in the hope of keeping the wind, admittedly less strong, but for longer than by continuing further West, like Samantha Davies (Initiatives-Cœur) or Clarisse Crémer (L'Occitane en Provence). 

On the cusp 

Others like Damien Seguin (Group APICIL), Louis Burton (Bureau Vallée) or Isabelle Joschke (MACSF) are more obviously on the cusp and are starting to prepare for whatever happens to them, at least mentally.

"It's hard to plan because the situation isn't super-super clear. There will be small places where it will be possible to slip through, but we will especially have to try not to get snared by the calm areas. It's complicated, today, to say what the best route will be", says Franco-German Joshcke who is, for the moment, still part of the leading peloton but she fears that she might not be able to hang on to the same system. 

"The fleet is already split in two the gap can grow and grow" concludes eighth placed Lunven. 

At present, about 500 miles separate the first group and the next group, which has finally finished with the Doldrums that is with the exception of Szabolcs Weöres (New Europe) who had to stop to repair his mainsail himself off Grand Canaria.