The Paris Olympic sailing regatta is being conducted in Marseilles. With only 48 hours until racing begins, forecasting models are accurate enough that we can use them to analyze who might be advantaged by the most likely wind conditions.
On March 28th the Olympic regatta begins with 4 events, the men’s and women’s skiff and the men’s and woman’s Windsurfer. The skiffs have 5 scheduled days plus two reserve while the windsurfers have six scheduled days plus two reserve. Those reserve days may become key to a fair regatta.
According to windy.com, Marseille will be in a stable high-pressure system from March 28th until March 31st, upon which point it’s meant to get really windy on August 1st. A summer high pressure system means still, close days, and could upend the regatta.
The first day of scheduled racing looks ok, with raceable winds in the lighter end of the spectrum. Days two through four look dire, and the fleet will be hoping for a sea breeze to fill in, which often isn’t the focus of the big weather models as it’s such a local phenomenon.
The fleet has raced against each other in dozens of regattas over the past years, but few have been very light for the majority of the time. However, the 2023 European Championship last November was light for six days in row, and could be a guide for how these Olympics might turn out.
Light is generally less predictable than heavy air. It’s just math really. A 2-knot puff in a base of 6 knots does more, percentage-wise, than a 2-knot puff in 20 knots of wind. Also, the wind is unduly influenced by smaller forces in light wind than in heavy wind. For example, a land effect from a hot spot on shore might shift the wind a couple of degrees on a strong wind day, while in light winds could result in a huge wind shift. In the FX fleet, there is also a wider variation in body weights between the heaviest and lightest teams. If the majority of the racing is to happen in light winds, the advantage could switch strongly to the smaller teams. We saw this in Tokyo, where 2 of the 5 days were light, and both the Argentinians and Singapore teams almost rode those light airs onto the podium.
Helene Naess with Marie Ronningen (NOR) won the 2023 Europeans in style, with only a single race outside of the top 10 in thirteen races. The pair are veterans who have been sailing the 49erFX since day 1. They even raced the 29erXX regatta back in 2012 before the 49erFX was selected ahead of it in late 2012. They finished 7th at the 2020 Toky Olympic games and didn’t make the 2016 games after loosing out to the Agerup sisters in selection. They won silver at the 2021 World Championships, a light air affair in Oman, and have won three European champions medals over the years. There is no team that a light air forecast aids more than the Norwegians, and they have the experience, poise, and skills to excel if the forecast comes true.
A second team that the light air will help a tremendous amount is the home-team French, Sarah Steyaert with Charline Picon. ‘The mamas’ only teamed up three years ago, after Charline won silver in windsurfing at Tokyo 2020 and Gold in windsurfing at Rio 2016. She pulled Steyaert out of retirement as Steyeart stopped sailing the FX before Rio. The pair are serious racers, but often struggle in the windiest conditions likely as they just don’t have the same level of experience in breeze as the rest of the fleet. They are tremendous starters, and know Marseilles very well. Their best-ever championship finish was a sixth at the 2023 Europeans.
Martine Grael and Kahena Kunze, the Brazilian pair chasing Olympic history, also enter the spotlight. They aim to become the first women to win three gold medals, though their performances in the last 18 months haven’t been their best. Nevertheless, their experience make them formidable competitors, especially in a varied weather scenario.
We will also have to keep our eye on the German pair of Marla Bergman with Hannah Wille. When the pressure was on for Germany to secure a podium position at the 2023 Europeans they won all three races of the final day to rocket up the standings and take the bronze medal. The two are the opposite of experienced, and in their first Olympic games, but with speed to burn in light winds they could secure their moment.
The three teams above will all likely benefit the most in light winds, but that isn’t to say they are now the podium favorites. The regatta still favors those who perform well in all conditions. Tamara Echegoyen with Paula Barcelo are veterans of the class, with Tamara having come fourth at both Rio and Tokyo. For Echegoyen, here Achilles heal used to be light winds, but they performed very well at the 2023 Europeans and will be aiming at a medal for sure, which for Echegoyen would bookmark an Olympic career that began with Gold in the match racing in London.
Additionally, the odds-on favorites remain Odile Van Aanholt with Annette Duetz (NED), with their three world championships this quad including the light air 2021 Worlds. Annette won Silver in Tokyo, and the pair do not have any ‘weak’ conditions at all.
Finally, let’s also mention Jana Germani and Georgia Bertuzzi (ITA) who took silver at the 2023 Europeans, though they did have some trouble in the gold fleet despite a wonderful start to the regatta.
The light air forecast could be a bit of a nightmare for Bobeck with Netzler (SWE), who typically dominate once they are trapezing, but if they can stay in the hunt until late in the week their beeze could come in.
49er in Light Air
In general, the 49er fleet isn’t as condition-dependent as the FX seems to be. The 49er teams have agreed on a common racing weight of about 165 kg per team, and none of the teams competing here in Marseilles will stray too far from this weight.
However, there are some teams that have shown a propensity to excel in light winds. Unlike in the FX where we suspect light air will favor the home nation France, the opposite could be true in the 49er. Erwan Fischer with Clement Pequin (FRA) dominated the 2024 49er World Championship, but this was in a very heavy weather regatta. Pequin is the largest crew at the games, and while the pair did not compete at the 2023 Europeans due to an injury, the contrast is stark as it was their countrymen Lucan Rual with Emile Amoros (FRA) who won that light air battle. With sailing allowing only a single team per nation, the French management selected the Fischer and Pequin instead.
So with about a dozen 49er teams in the running for this games podium, let’s just mention a few who might prefer the lighter winds. Bildstein and Hussl (AUT) are the shortest combined team competing, and are very experienced, certainly experienced enough to perform well. James Peters and Fynn Sterritt (GBR) actually missed gold fleet at the 2023 Europeans, but have been speculated to be on the lighter end of things recently, which could end up helping. The Fantela brothers have always been great in the light to medium airs. Sime Fantela is the 2016 Gold medalist in the 470, so certainly is an expert on sail setup and a deft touch in the lighter conditions. Finally, McHardie with McKenzie (NZL) performed very well at the 2023 Europeans to win their first senior championship medal.
However, it is likely the all around favorites for the podium will remain the same despite the forecast in the 49er. That leaves Bart Lambriex with Floris van de Werken (NED), Diego Botin with Florian Trittel (ESP), and Dominik Buksak with Szymon Weirzbicki (POL) as the likely favorites for the podium.
Shout out to the USA, SUI, URU, IRL, and GER who are all in the mix too. Let’s just hope for a full slate of racing so whoever wins can be fully tested by the rest of the best sailors on earth and so we at home can watch some amazing fleet racing.
Liveline
While we do not yet know the full TV schedule, there are rumors the coverage game has been stepped up considerably. The Olympic Broadcasting System (OBS) has contracted Liveline from SailGP. Assuming everything works, that would make for an awesome step up in coverage with the overlayed graphics on the race course likely to really help the world understand what is going on. Further rumours circulate that ultra-high accuracy GPS units have also been procured, which would be necessary for the system to sync up fully.
It has not yet been released when the fleets will be covered, but it seems like the schedule has been spread out more than in the past, so we should get more skiff action than ever before. For example, the day 1 schedule has the windsurf marathons starting at midday, but the skiffs don’t start until 4pm. Ideally, that means OBS is planning on airing a full programme of coverage, with time built in for the heli to refuel, too.
Let’s just hope the wind is better than forecast and we can all watch some great racing.