As leader Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance) continues his passage northwards towards France he remains under threat from Yoann Richomme (PAPREC ARKEA, 2nd). The gap is stable at around 140 miles – so around 11 hours or so at current speeds.

Richomme may have acknowledged several times now that he cannot see an obvious opportunity to come back at Dalin but there is always hope, not least with light winds due for the final hours back down the Brittany coast to the Vendée. But Richomme will hope until the end, there is a huge element of suspense more than 2,900 miles further south on the other side of the Equator. Between fourth and tenth the main peloton may have long, long since given up hope of finishing on the podium but theirs is a battle between immensely talented skippers which looks set to carry on to a series of very close finishes into Les Sables d’Olonne. From Brit Sam Goodchild (VULNERABLE, 4th) to Switzerland’s Justine Mettraux (Teamwork-Team Snef) this race will go to the wire, finishing in around ten days. 

Make your choice....

With less than 800 miles to the finish Dalin retains the upper hand for sure and for race fans who made their predictions months ago their choice of winner will prove right. Or not. The binary choices we make in life. Prost or Senna? ‘Beep beep’ or Coyote? Messi or Ronaldo? Nadal or Federer? The Beatles or the Rolling Stones? Blur or Oasis? Even in sailing Birch or Malinowski? Gabart or Le Cléac’h? Such comparisons seem not to chime with Charlie and Yoann who are the actors at the heart of any final suspense before the finish. “Superlatives are for landlubbers,” Richomme admonished yesterday. 

In two nights, the winner of the 10th Vendée Globe will be known. So, Dalin or Richomme? 

“For the moment, both are following the routings at about the same speed,” explains Hubert Lemonnier race director. “It’s one shot you, one shot me. They made about 520 miles in the last 24 hours with an average speed of 20 knots. Yoann may be on a slightly more direct route but the difference is minimal. What we can say, however, is that their route seems really optimal! "

In the rest of the fleet, Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil, 3rd) is also making some great averages in the same weather system as the leaders. Clarisse Cremer (L'Occitane en Provence, 11th) and Sam Davies (Initiatives Cœur, 13th) should finally be able to accelerate in better breeze, emerging finally from the cold front. Jean Le Cam (Tout Commence en Finistère – Armor Lux, 14th) still has control of the next group but these pursuers have good conditions to come back today.

At the back, Kojiro Shiraishi (DMG Mori Global One) has taken his penalty (engine seal problem). Louis Duc (Five Groupe Lanta Environnement, 25th) and Sébastien Marsset (FOUSSIER, 24th) are stuck in the anticyclone while Conrad Colman (MS Amlin, 22nd) and Guirec Soudée (Freelance.com, 23rd) managed to escape from it. 

The other race 

If the match for the title is the main focus the race for fourth to tenth is super intense. Within this posse are several who were among the pre-race favorites (Thomas Ruyant, Jérémie Beyou), others considered more outsiders (Sam Goodchild, Nicolas Lunven, Paul Meilhat, Boris Herrmann and Justine Mettraux). Some are compromised by technical problems but fighting on. 

There is the lost J2 for Thomas Ruyant (VULNERABLE), wind aerial problem for Nicolas Lunven (Holcim-PRB), broken foil cylinder for Jérémie Beyou (Charal), the broken J2 hook cost Boris Herrmann (Malizia Seaexplorer)…

The blessing for them is they are mostly racing in good trade winds now. And the leaders of the pack Goodchild and Beyou have about 300 miles to the Equator. But the intensity of the battle is doubly debilitating, nothing is decided. 

"We had about ten really trying days," sighs tenth placed Justine Mettraux (Teamwork-Team Snef). Neck and neck all the time are Goodchild and Beyou who have taken the lead of the group. 

Beyou remains more cheerful: 

Even if we had crossed seas yesterday and the wind dropped a lot for a few hours, the conditions are much more stable than what we have seen. We still managed to make good progress. The fact of being two (by being neck and neck with Sam Goodchild), it allows us to maintain a good pace. As soon as you let your trim slip or you no longer have the right angle you pay for it immediately. You hyper reactive to adjustments. I have the impression that it is a little better to be in front (at the front of the group) but I am wary of saying anything like that!”

Jérémie

Beyou

CHARAL

Those who have gone the furthest east, offshore – a situation which is generally more profitable than working close to the Brazilian coast – have not generally profited. Such has been the case for Paul Meilhat (Biotherm) who dropped behind the Goochild-Beyou duo, same for Nicolas Lunven. The skipper of Holcim-PRB says:

“My east option was not great, I am very disappointed with the result, I did not have the wind that was forecast and I still do not have it. Normally, I should have had a more favorable wind, which would have allowed me to go faster. Jérémie, Sam and Paul took advantage of it to take a good lead over me… It’s a bit of a shame because I was ahead of them before. But that’s how it is, it happens. I hope there will be other moves to make between now and the finish!”

Lunven explains further, "In a few days we will get to the doldrums. We will be more or less aligned in the same axis. We're not going to hope for too much but we shouldn't rule out anything either. After that, there will be the North Atlantic trade winds upwind. Then, from the Canaries to the finish, the weather forecast is not set at all. There is a lot of uncertainty!"

"It's not easy to make predictions about how it's going to end," adds Mettraux, who is fighting to catch up with Thomas Ruyant and Paul Meilhat. Overall this is a battle which will be rich in drama and suspense right to Les Sables d’Olonne.