Vendée Globe, what will the winning margin be?

What logically can be considered the Vendée Globe title duel between Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance, 1st) and Yoann Richomme (PAPREC ARKEA, 2nd) continues unabated in the trade winds. The two rivals are heading north towards the infamous Azores high pressure system, which they should reach within 48 hours, a substantial area of light winds which really forms the last big weather obstacle standing between them and the Bay of Biscay and the finish line off Les Sables d’Olonne.

Behind them, Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil, 3rd) crossed the equator this morning. Off the coast of Brazil, the main big group of pursuers are battling and to the far south, Benjamin Ferré (Monnoyeur - DUO for a JOB, 20th) has rounded Cape Horn. For him and the group behind him the challenge is to set up early and well for a nasty depression which will sweep across the Andes into the South Atlantic on Thursday.

In the start-finish host town of Les Sables d'Olonne on the west coast of France the atmosphere has ramped up in recent days. Technical teams are busy setting up big structures for the race village and even in the mainstream French medal, the story and the progress of the leading duo is endlessly dissected. 

And so with the leaders arrival approaching, now about a week off, the building of Vendée Globe village is in full swing. And Dalin and Richomme their routing updates are now right to the finish line. Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance) and Yoann Richomme (PAPREC ARKÉA) are separated by 130 miles on the 1400hrs UTC ranking today.  

"They are still in the trade winds, the wind will gradually strengthen until the ridge of high pressure on Thursday", explains Christian Dumard, the Vendée Globe weather consultant. 

‘It’s magical!’
Reached this morning during the calls a visibly tired Yoann Richomme, explained: 

Ultimately the doldrums were quite tiring even if it didn't last very long. Right now, it's going pretty fast, 21 knots on average and it's moving a lot. Right now, it's simple, it's straight ahead for two days in the trade winds until the Azores high. Once we're there, I have the impression that Charlie will be a little stronger, it's hard to estimate. I'm mainly trying to keep up the pace. I think that if the scenario remains stable, we'll arrive in eight days. I'm not really taking it in yet even though I know it's still exceptional. It's not a transatlantic, it's a round the world race and the boat is in great condition. It's magical!
YoannRichommePAPREC ARKÉA

What will the winning margin be? 
 
What will be the gap between the first two at the finish? Specialists like to point out that there was only 2 hours and 31 minutes between Yannick Bestaven and Charlie Dalin four years ago (following the time compensation inherited by the skipper of Maître CoQ). In 2012, the gap between François Gabart and Armel Le Cléac’h was 3 hours and 17 minutes.  Invited to Vendée Live this afternoon, Gabart looked back on the current battle:

“When I see MACIF Santé Prévoyance with Charlie (Dalin) in the lead, it inevitably takes me back to my memories of the Vendée Globe. I had a battle with Armel (Le Cléac’h) that resembles the one between Charlie and Yoann. Managing the pressure is part of the difficulty and magic of ocean racing. You have to know how to stay in the match until the very end. But it’s a chance to keep up the adrenaline and pressure until the finish. For me, it made the victory even sweeter. Even in the very last minutes, I was pushing my boat to 100% of its potential and it’s a privilege. And for the public too, it’s great to have suspense until the end!””

Simon on course for third? 

The third positioned Séb Simon, crossed the equator this morning at 0608hrs UTC and in so doing  trundled into the doldrums even if he should not be slowed down much by the storms and squalls. But correspondingly the Vendéen racer is too far behind to benefit from the strong winds of a low pressure system that is forming to the South-East of Newfoundland and which should press the leading duo home

A hell of a battle for the ‘top 10’
The battles behind still rage. We are still seeing two distinct strategies in the heart of a transition zone. On one side, those who favour the East, including Jérémie Beyou (Charal, 4th) and Sam Goodchild (VULNERABLE, 5th), and those who sail further offshore, like Paul Meilhat (Biotherm, 9th) and Nicolas Lunven (Holcim-PRB, 10th). 

“It’s difficult to know who will cross in front of the other, even if Jérémie may have a slight advantage,” explains Christian Dumard. The boats are tired and technical problems rear their head more and more. Germany’s Boris Herrmann (Maliza Seaexplorer, 6th) had to climb his mast after a problem with his backstay deflector (which allows the backstay to be tensioned 

At the vacations this morning, Sam Goodchild explained that everyone faces sometimes very tough squalls: "I have one with lightning, a wind that is rising... It looks really nasty, really strong and that is my concern at the moment. The East option was a little closed to me because of a windless zone and I felt that the West option was less risky. At best I might gain three to four places, at worst I stay with my group. We feel that the boats are tired even if I don't have any big problems to complain about. We are all trying not to take too many risks!"

Behind, the trio Benjamin Dutreux (Guyot Environnement – ​​Water Family, 11th), Clarisse Crémer (L’Occitane en Provence, 12th) and Sam Davies (Initiatives Cœur, 13th) will soon have to face an area of ​​erratic wind and squalls. The experienced Jean Le Cam (Tout Commence en Finistère – Armor Lux, 14th) has picked up two places, getting ahead of Damien Seguin (Groupe APICIL, 15th) and Romain Attanasio (Fortinet Best Western, 16th). They are trying to sail upwind to the North upwind whilst “King Jean” has decided to take a more Easterly option.

A strong depression incoming
A little further back everyone is trying to figure out how to position themselves best for a major depression that will form in the Andes mountain range and sweep across southern South America on Thursday. 

"It's a depression that's moving fast, with cold winds of 40 knots coming from Antarctica, gusts of 50 knots," says Dumard. 

Isabelle Joschke (MACSF, 18th), Giancarlo Pedote (Prysmian, 19th) and Yannick Bestaven (Maître CoQ V, out of the race) should be able to escape it. But maybe not so Benjamin Ferré (Monnoyeur - DUO for a JOB, 20th) who rounded Cape Horn for the first time this morning at 0747hrs UTC 

“Now it is a race against time that's really on," says Ferre in a video. "The further ahead we get the less we get smacked. There may be a little escape route to go and find but it's quite scary."

Meantime Violette Dorange (Devenir, 28th) is trying to slow down to avoid the worst depression as she approaches the third and final great Cape of her first Vendée Globe. Meantime up ahead Guirec Soudée (Freelance.com, 24th), hesitated before putting put his foot on the brake but now prefers to press on forward.  As soon as Cape Horn is passed, the adventurer will take advantage of a calm zone to climb the mast in order to repair his J2 and his lazy-jack. With a smile on his face, he explained why he was determined to continue, 

"I'm just happy to be done with the Great South and to be in the Atlantic. But this Cape Horn, you can't just pass it like that! I have 38 knots, gusts of over 50 knots are forecast, we're finishing the Pacific in style! I thought about slowing down like some people with the depression that follows. The problem is that you don't know what conditions you'll have afterwards. I prefer to take what I see coming rather than having a headwind. We're going to have to reduce speed, be careful, but that's part of the game!" 

In the afternoon, the race organisers learned that another skipper in this group, Éric Bellion (Stand As One – Altavia, 27th) was facing technical problems. The cause? Damage to the pin holding the forestay of J2 His team was say Bellion  "managed to recover all the parts and repairs are possible". 

J’en ai un qui gonfle et qui se rapproche avec des éclairs, du vent qui monte… Ça a l’air bien méchant, bien costaud et c’est ça ma préoccupation du moment. L’option Est était un peu fermée à cause d’une zone sans vent et j’ai estimé que l’option Ouest était moins risquée. Au mieux, je gagne trois à quatre places, au pire je reste avec les copains. On sent que les bateaux sont fatigués même si je n’ai pas de gros problème à déplorer. Nous essayons tous de ne pas prendre trop de risques !

SamGoodchildVULNERABLE

Derrière, le trio Benjamin Dutreux (Guyot Environnement – Water Family, 11e), Clarisse Crémer (L’Occitane en Provence, 12e) et Samantha Davies (Initiatives Cœur, 13e) devront bientôt faire face à une zone de vent erratique et de grains. De son côté, l’expérimenté, Jean Le Cam (Tout Commence en Finistère – Armor Lux, 14e) grapille discrètement deux places en passant devant le duo Damien Seguin (Groupe APICIL, 15e) et Romain Attanasio (Fortinet Best Western, 16e). Alors que les deux hommes tentent de faire du Nord au près, le “Roi Jean” a décidé de prendre une option plus Est. 

Une forte dépression dans le viseur
Un peu plus loin, tous s’attachent à savoir comment se positionner face à une importante dépression qui va se former dans la cordillère des Andes et déferler sur le sud de l’Amérique du Sud jeudi. « C’est une dépression qui circule vite, avec du vent froid de 40 nœuds qui vient d’Antarctique, des rafales à 50 nœuds », précise Christian Dumard. Isabelle Joschke (MACSF, 18e), Giancarlo Pedote (Prysmian, 19e) et Yannick Bestaven (Maître CoQ V, hors course) devraient pouvoir y échapper. En revanche, elle devrait concerner Benjamin Ferré (Monnoyeur - DUO for a JOB, 20e) qui a passé le cap Horn dans la matinée (à 8h47, heure française). « C’est une course contre-la-montre qui est lancée, précise Benjamin dans une vidéo. Plus on est en avance, moins on se fait taper sur la tête. Il y a peut-être un trou de souris à aller chercher mais c’est assez angoissant ».

A strong depression incoming
A little further back everyone is trying to figure out how to position themselves best for a major depression that will form in the Andes mountain range and sweep across southern South America on Thursday. 

"It's a depression that's moving fast, with cold winds of 40 knots coming from Antarctica, gusts of 50 knots," says Dumard. 

Isabelle Joschke (MACSF, 18th), Giancarlo Pedote (Prysmian, 19th) and Yannick Bestaven (Maître CoQ V, out of the race) should be able to escape it. But maybe not so Benjamin Ferré (Monnoyeur - DUO for a JOB, 20th) who rounded Cape Horn for the first time this morning at 0747hrs UTC 

“Now it is a race against time that's really on," says Ferre in a video. "The further ahead we get the less we get smacked. There may be a little escape route to go and find but it's quite scary."

Meantime Violette Dorange (Devenir, 28th) is trying to slow down to avoid the worst depression as she approaches the third and final great Cape of her first Vendée Globe. Meantime up ahead Guirec Soudée (Freelance.com, 24th), hesitated before putting put his foot on the brake but now prefers to press on forward.  As soon as Cape Horn is passed, the adventurer will take advantage of a calm zone to climb the mast in order to repair his J2 and his lazy-jack. With a smile on his face, he explained why he was determined to continue, 

"I'm just happy to be done with the Great South and to be in the Atlantic. But this Cape Horn, you can't just pass it like that! I have 38 knots, gusts of over 50 knots are forecast, we're finishing the Pacific in style! I thought about slowing down like some people with the depression that follows. The problem is that you don't know what conditions you'll have afterwards. I prefer to take what I see coming rather than having a headwind. We're going to have to reduce speed, be careful, but that's part of the game!" 

In the afternoon, the race organisers learned that another skipper in this group, Éric Bellion (Stand As One – Altavia, 27th) was facing technical problems. The cause? Damage to the pin holding the forestay of J2 His team was say Bellion  "managed to recover all the parts and repairs are possible".