Rolex Middle Sea Race 2026: a race against the weather

For the 107 yachts and around 940 sailors preparing for the 47th Rolex Middle Sea Race, the waiting is almost over. Starting tomorrow, Saturday 17 October, at 11:00 CEST, from the spectacular setting of Malta's Grand Harbour, an international fleet representing sailors from 55 countries and territories faces 606 nautical miles of complex offshore racing around Sicily. With unsettled weather forecast throughout the coming week, this year's contest promises to be as much about timing and tactical judgement as outright boat speed.

From the Strait of Messina and Stromboli to western Sicily, Pantelleria and Lampedusa, the course presents successive challenges. Forecast models vary on wind strength and the timing of transitions.

Veteran navigator Mike Broughton, racing aboard Jens Kellinghusen's Ker 56 Varuna VI, sees increasing agreement between the two main longer-range weather models, although the American GFS predicts lighter winds over the opening 48 hours.
Broughton warns of a more demanding prospect for smaller yachts off western Sicily later in the week. Building south-easterlies on Tuesday could reach around 20–25 knots, before a trough arrives on Wednesday morning with rain, possible thunderstorms and gusting up to 32 knots. He expects seas of approximately 1.8–2.4 metres. The models largely agree on wind direction, although the predicted strengths differ.

The Big Boats – Different Strengths

Remon Vos's Black Jack 100, skippered by Tristan Le Brun, returns to defend her monohull line honours title. The team is routing for a passage of approximately 54 hours, although some significant changes to the yacht's sail configuration introduce some uncertainty into the equation.

The 30.45m Reichel/Pugh design has dispensed with large genoas in favour of a revised sail plan that includes a high-flying BR0, or Blast Reaching Zero. A similar sail design was seen to be flown with effect by Balthasar at the start of the 2025 Rolex Middle Sea Race. However, limited performance data from this major change means its polars are not yet fully reliable.

Johnny Vincent's Volvo 70 Pace arrives having won both line honours and overall IRC in August's 1,805-nautical-mile RORC Round Britain and Ireland Race. Jules Salter is navigating, with fellow round-the-world veterans Stu Bannatyne and Neal MacDonald leading the watches.

Bannatyne expects a difficult opening in the forecast light downwind conditions, when Pace may struggle to stay in touch with Black Jack 100. “Our goal is just going to be to do the best we can to hang on,” he explained. The Volvo 70s opportunity should come later, when stronger upwind and reaching conditions may allow Pace to exploit her strengths and potentially recover lost ground.

Bannatyne also expects building south-easterlies to produce a substantial sea state later in the race, conditions in which Pace could push harder than some rivals. “Any conditions where some of the more Grand Prix-style inshore boats, like Balthasar and Django in particular, might be thinking about sailing a little bit more conservatively, those are conditions that we know with confidence we can push hard in.”

But Bannatyne will not count on a forecast wind hole near Lampedusa favouring larger yachts: “I've seen such things before turn upside down and go the other way.” His advice: “A lot of eyes out of the boat, and I would say being careful not to put too much faith in any of the forecasts.”

For defending overall winner under IRC, the Mills 72 Balthasar skippered by Louis Balcaen, the forecast offers both encouragement and a specific challenge. Balthasar's Jens Dolmer believes relatively little reaching is expected, which suits her in the highly anticipated contest with close rival Django 7X. The Wallyrocket 71 benefits from substantial righting moment, making reaching conditions a particular strength.
Dolmer has identified Lampedusa as potentially decisive. The forecast suggests the wind may decrease significantly. Potentially this gives the larger, faster boats a substantial advantage. According to Dolmer, it is important for Balthasar to reach and clear the area before the breeze fades. He believes smaller yachts following behind may struggle to avoid the developing wind hole.

Earlier this week, and led by offshore race tactician Bouwe Bekking, Balthasar proved she has arrived in excellent form, claiming line honours and overall IRC victory in Wednesday's Yachting Malta Coastal Race.

Meanwhile, Bernard Arkas's TP52 Arkas Blue Moon, skippered by Serhat Altay, is chasing a remarkable Mediterranean offshore hat-trick, having won both the 2026 Giraglia and Palermo–Montecarlo races. Third overall under IRC in this week’s Coastal Race suggests the Turkish campaign is another leading contender.

Massimo Farina, aboard Franco Niggeler's MAT 1220 Kuka 4 from Switzerland, warns that a computer route might show a yacht crossing into fresh wind just in time, when even a small delay could leave it becalmed for hours. Such missed transitions could radically alter both elapsed times and the IRC standings.

The Maltese Challenge

Among the local favourites is Lee Satariano's HH42 Artie III, racing with Christian Ripard, a four-time overall winner making his remarkable 36th appearance. Satariano, himself a two-time winner (both with Ripard), sees reaching Capo Passero before dusk as crucial. With the wind forecast to fade overnight, making northing towards and through Messina could determine who reaches fresh breeze first. He also warns of wind holes along northern Sicily, where keeping a boat moving in the fickle, light airs could make or break a race.

The Podesta family's First 45 Elusive 2, overall winner in 2019 and 2020, will also attract considerable attention. To date, a Podesta has taken part in every race since 1968. Elusive 2 is a perennial threat in the battle to win class under IRC, and was the top Maltese yacht in the Coastal Race warm up this week, finishing fourth overall and winning IRC Class 4.

There is further Maltese family history aboard Sebastian Ripard and Daniel Calascione's Farr 30 Calypso. The smallest monohull in the fleet, Calypso carries five grandchildren of race co-founder John Ripard Snr, who passed away this summer. Despite its small size, Calypso puts in strong performances every year including a win in IRC 5 in 2023.

First Past the Post – Class40

The five-strong Class40 fleet provides a different contest, with the first yacht across the finish line taking victory, rather than the result being determined by handicap correction. Talanta, Stella Nova, Moonpalace and Flamingo Rosso will line up against Optimus Prime, owned by Croatian skiing legend and four-time Olympic silver medallist Ivica Kostelić, and skippered by Matic Vrečko. The Slovenian-led team arrives having won the recent Cannes–Malta Race.

Having competed several times at the Rolex Middle Sea Race, Kostelić relishes the contrast between individual sporting achievement and offshore teamwork. “You're supposed to work as one, so everybody needs to keep that in mind if you want to be fast,” he explained. Equally appealing is the direct Class40 competition. “You look at the tracker, you know where you are at every moment of the race,” he said. “That's what actually makes you push really hard.”

The Longer Way Could Be Faster

For the smaller yachts in the race, the tactical choices faced could be difficult and many.
Leonardi Servi, racing aboard the 38ft Scricca, is considering an unusual route that takes the double-handed crew much further beyond Favignana, off the north-west coast of Sicily, than usual. His weather routing suggests some advantage in passing outside Marettimo, even though the island is not a mark of the course.

With a significant sea state expected, the additional distance could provide a more favourable angle to the waves heading into the forecast strong southerly. The option should allow Scricca to maintain better control and higher speeds. Servi will make his final decision approaching the Egadi Islands, based on the conditions encountered.

Servi is hopeful that the final leg from Lampedusa towards Comino could be a tight fetch rather than a demanding beat—welcome news for the short-handed crew after several days at sea. His current routing suggests a Wednesday-next finish.

Broughton meanwhile also sees opportunities for lower-rated yachts, particularly if some encounter downwind conditions where others have faced upwind sailing. Nevertheless, he leans towards a larger yacht for overall IRC honours, while stressing that the weather pattern offers no guarantees.

Much More Than One Prize

While the main body of the fleet will be competing for the overall prize awarded under IRC Time Correction, there are incentives to perform well—including the simple but rewarding satisfaction of completing one of the world's classic 600-mile offshore races.
The wider fleet includes sailors spanning generations, among them 12 competitors under 18. The youngest of these is 14-year-old Max Toms, racing as part of the crew on the Finot Conq 44 Zephyr along with his older brother Alex, himself only 16. The sense of accomplishment for these youngsters will be enormous as they embark on their offshore racing journeys. Several youth first-timers from 2025 race can be found spread through the fleet, including Pippa Bartolo Parnis (17) on Geisha.

Elsewhere, the Rolex Middle Sea Race 2026 opens the RORC Season's Points Championship 2027, the International Maxi Association Mediterranean Offshore Challenge 2027 and the Class40 Mediterranean Trophy 2027. It also concludes the Swan Maxi Series 2026. The multihull fleet will compete for its own silverware, while the ORC division, double-handed crews and local Maltese entries all have trophies to pursue, including line honours and handicap awards.

The final prize-giving is scheduled for Saturday 24 October, and tomorrow morning's starts mark the first steps on a long and fascinating journey. While the weather remains uncertain, one constant is assured: an enthralling succession of stories will unfold around Sicily over the coming week.